Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on Gray Theory

Abstract

Power load forecasting provides the basis for the preparation of power planning, especially the accurate short-term power load forecasting. It can formulate power rationing program of area load reliably and timely, to maintain the normal production and life. This article describes the gray prediction method, and improves GM (1,1) model via processing the original data sequence smoothly, using the correction model of parameteramending parameter values, adding the residual model, and also applying the idea of the metabolism. It conducts an empirical analysis of the 10KV large cable of Guigang Power Supply Bureau in Nan Ping, and verifies the limitations of ordinary gray theory. The improved gray model has a higher prediction accuracy than the conventional GM (1,1) model.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/telkomnika.v11i11.3547